EMBO reports (2010) 11, 493 - 499
doi:10.1038/embor.2010.84
Published online: 11 June 2010
Subject Categories:
Philosophy & History of Science | Societal Issues & Politics
doi:10.1038/embor.2010.84
Published online: 11 June 2010
Subject Categories:
Philosophy & History of Science | Societal Issues & Politics
Conspiracy theories in science
Conspiracy theories that target specific research can have serious consequences for public health and environmental policies
Ted Goertzel
Received 19 March 2010; Accepted 7 May 2010
Introduction
Conspiracy theories are easy to propagate and difficult to refute. Fortunately, until a decade or so ago, few serious conspiracy theories haunted the natural sciences. More recently, however, conspiracy theories have begun to gain ground and, in some cases, have struck a chord with a public already mistrustful of science and government. Conspiracy theorists—some of them scientifically trained—have claimed that the HIV virus is not the cause of AIDS, that global warming is a manipulative hoax and that vaccines and genetically modified foods are unsafe. These claims have already caused serious consequences: misguided public health policies, resistance to energy conservation and alternative energy, and dropping vaccination rates.
Responding to conspiracy theories and ‘sceptics’ draws scientists into arenas where objective information matters less than emotional appeals…
Responding to conspiracy theories and ‘sceptics’ draws scientists into arenas where objective information matters less than emotional appeals, unsupported allegations and unverified speculations. Scientists are understandably reluctant to get bogged down in such debates, but they are sometimes unavoidable when scientists need to voice their concerns in the public arena. It is thus both helpful and important to understand the logic of conspiracy arguments and the best ways to respond to them.
‘Conspiracy’ is an essentially contested rhetorical concept that people apply to different events depending on their point of view (Gallie, 1964). It is almost always pejorative. The Oxford English Dictionary defines conspiracy quite loosely as “an agreement between two or more persons to do something criminal, illegal or reprehensible”. While the law can precisely define the criminal act in any conspiracy, ‘reprehensible’ is in the eye of the beholder. When Hillary Clinton protested that her husband US President Bill Clinton was the victim of a “vast right-wing conspiracy” and US President Lyndon B. Johnson accused the media and liberal activists of a “conspiracy” to oppose his Vietnam War policies, they were intentionally vague as to whether they referred to illegal or merely reprehensible behaviour (Kramer & Gavreili, 2005). Calling something a conspiracy makes it sound much worse than just saying, “people are ganging up on me.”
Invoking the word conspiracy also implies that something is secret and hidden.Pigden (2006) defines a conspiracy as “a secret plan on the part of a group to influence events in part by covert action”. Conspiracies so defined certainly do take place; they are not necessarily a figment of anyone's imagination. These include the failed conspiracy to assassinate Adolf Hitler, the September 11 attacks and the Watergate conspiracy. However, in history and social science, the term ‘conspiracy theory’ usually refers to claims that important events were caused by conspiracies that have heretofore remained undiscovered (Coady, 2006). The claim that the World Trade Center was destroyed by al-Qaeda would not be a conspiracy theory in this sense, but the claim that it was bombed by Israeli agents, or that the American authorities knew about it in advance, would be.
A conspiracy theory gives believers someone tangible to blame for their perceived predicament, instead of blaming it on impersonal or abstract social forces
In the realm of science, the ‘climategate’ scandal that has dogged the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU; Norwich, UK) has seen the word conspiracy thrown about on both sides of the argument. Climate change ‘sceptics’ have accused Professor Phil Jones of conspiring with his collaborators to manipulate climate data and the scientific literature, while supporters of the CRU have pointed out that the hacking of the e-mails and the selective, pejorative quoting of their content was a conspiracy to discredit the scientific evidence for climate disruption.
Historians and social scientists are generally sceptical of conspiracy theories because they believe that most conspiracies fail and that historical events can be better understood without recourse to unverifiable speculation (Keeley, 2006). Nevertheless, conspiracy theories can get a firm hold among the public at large and their influence seems to be spreading. To understand this success, it is useful to think of conspiracy theorizing as a ‘meme’, a cultural invention that passes from one mind to another and survives, or dies out, through natural selection (Dawkins, 1976). As rhetorical devices, conspiracy theories compete with memes such as ‘fair debate’, ‘scientific expertise’ and ‘resistance to orthodoxy’.
Conspiracy theories appeal to people who are discontented with the established institutions of their society and especially with elites in that society. They are likely to believe that conditions are worsening for people like themselves and that the authorities do not care about them. A conspiracy theory gives believers someone tangible to blame for their perceived predicament, instead of blaming it on impersonal or abstract social forces. The meme becomes a habit of thought: the more people believe in one conspiracy, the more likely they are to believe in others (Goertzel, 1994; Kramer, 1998).
The logic of the conspiracy meme is to question everything the ‘establishment’—be it government or scientists—says or does, even on the most hypothetical and speculative grounds, and to demand immediate, comprehensive and definitive answers to all questions. A failure to give convincing answers is then used as proof of conspiratorial deception. Meanwhile, conspiracy theorists offer their own alternative theories with the flimsiest of evidence, challenging the authorities to prove them wrong.
Of 92 conspiracy theories described in a recent handbook (McConnachie & Tudge, 2008), most targeted political, religious, military, diplomatic or economic elites. These ranged from Tutankhamun and the curse of the Pharaoh to the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, from satanic ritual abuse to the alleged scheming of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission and the British Royal family. Others involved religious cults, alien abductions or terrorist plots. Some are just amusing, but others fuelled wars, inquisitions and genocides in which millions of people died.
How can we distinguish between the amusing eccentrics, the honestly misguided, the avaricious litigants and the serious sceptics questioning a premature consensus?
The scientific and technological conspiracies listed in the handbook mostly allege the misuse of science by government, the military and large corporations. These include bizarre claims that the military suppressed technology that could make warships invisible; automobile and oil companies have hidden technology that would turn water into gasoline; the military is secretly in cahoots with space aliens; the HIV virus was created deliberately as part of a plot to kill black or gay people; and that dentists seek to poison Americans by putting fluoride in public water supplies. Others claim that corporate officers and public health officials suppressed evidence that preservatives in vaccines cause autism and that silicone breast implants cause connective tissue disease (Specter, 2009; Wallace, 2009).
Other conspiracy theories include claims that a major drug company hid reports that its leading anti-inflammatory drug caused heart attacks and strokes (Specter, 2009); environmental scientists have conspired to keep refereed journals from publishing papers by researchers sceptical that global warming is a crisis (Hayward, 2009;Revkin, 2009); physicians or drug companies have conspired to suppress non-mainstream medical treatments, vitamins and health foods; and that big business and the medical establishment have conspired to obstruct the search for a cure for AIDS so they can continue to sell their ineffective drugs and treatments (Nussbaum, 1990).
Many of these theories are clearly absurd, but some have a veneer of possibility. How can we distinguish between the amusing eccentrics, the honestly misguided, the avaricious litigants and the serious sceptics questioning a premature consensus? No private individual has the time or the expertise to examine the original research literature on each topic, so it is important to have some guidelines for deciding which theories are plausible enough to merit serious examination.
One valuable guideline is to look for cascade logic in conspiracy arguments (Susstein & Vermeule, 2008). This occurs when defenders of one conspiracy theory find it necessary to implicate more and more people whose failure to discover or reveal the conspiracy can only be explained by their alleged complicity. Another guideline is to look for exaggerated claims about the power of the conspirators: claims that are needed to explain how they were able to intimidate so many people and cover their tracks so well. The more vast and more powerful the alleged conspiracy, the less likely that it could have remained undiscovered.
For example, the claim that the moon landing in 1969 was a hoax implies the complicity of thousands of American scientists and technicians as well as of Soviet astronomers and others around the world who tracked the event. It is incredibly implausible that such a conspiracy could have held together. On the contrary, the theory that a few individuals in Richard Nixon's campaign conspired to break into their opponents' offices in the Watergate building was plausible and proved worth investigating and was, indeed, true.
Even if a conspiracy theory is implausible, it can be used as a rhetorical device to appeal to the emotions of a significant public
Even if a conspiracy theory is implausible, it can be used as a rhetorical device to appeal to the emotions of a significant public. The conspiracy meme flourishes best in politics, religion and journalism, in which practitioners can succeed by attracting followers from the general public. These practitioners might actually believe the conspiracy theory, or they might simply use it to win public support.
As long as scientists keep away from politics and controversial social issues, they are largely immune to conspiracy theories because success in scientific careers comes from winning grant applications and publishing significant findings in peer-reviewed journals. Attacking other scientists as conspirators would not be helpful for the careers of most scientists, no matter how frustrated they might be with referees, editors, colleagues or administrators who turn down their manuscripts or grant proposals, or deny them tenure. But conspiracy theories can be useful for scientists who are so far out of the mainstream in their field that they seek to appeal to alternative funding sources or publication outlets. They also might occasionally surface when a scientist's mental health deteriorates to the point that he or she loses touch with reality.
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