On Theory in Ecology
Pablo A. Marquet, Andrew P. Allen, James H. Brown, Jennifer A. Dunne, Brian J. Enquist, James F. Gillooly, Patricia A. Gowaty, Jessica L. Green, John Harte, Steve P. Hubbell, James O’Dwyer, Jordan G. Okie, Annette Ostling, Mark Ritchie, David Storch and Geoffrey B. West
Pablo A. Marquet (pmarquet{at}bio.puc.cl) is affiliated with the Department of Ecology in the School of Biological Sciences, at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, in Santiago; the Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, also in Santiago; the Santa Fe Institute, in Santa Fe, New Mexico; and the Instituto de Sistemas Complejos de Valparaíso, Chile. Andrew P. Allen is affiliated with the Department of Biological Sciences at Macquarie University, in Sydney, Australia. James H. Brown is affiliated with the Department of Biology at the University of New Mexico, in Albuquerque. Jennifer A. Dunne, Brian J. Enquist, and Geoffrey B. West are affiliated with the Santa Fe institute; JAD is also affiliated with the Pacific Ecoinformatics and Computational Ecology Lab, in Berkeley, California; and BJE is also affiliated with the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Arizona, in Tucson. James F. Gillooly is affiliated with the Department of Biology at the University of Florida, in Gainesville. Patricia A. Gowaty and Steve P. Hubbell are affiliated with the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, at the University of California, Los Angeles, and with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, in Panama City, Panama. Jessica L. Green is affiliated with the Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Oregon, in Eugene. John Harte is affiliated with the Energy and Resources Group and with the Environmental Science, Policy, and Management Department at the University of California, Berkeley. James O’Dwyer is affiliated with the Department of Plant Biology at the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. Jordan G. Okie is affiliated with the School of Earth and Space Exploration at Arizona State University, in Tempe. Annette Ostling is affiliated with the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Michigan, in Ann Arbor. Mark Ritchie is affiliated with the Department of Biology at Syracuse University, in Syracuse New York. David Storch is affiliated with the Center for Theoretical Study and with the Department of Ecology, in the Faculty of Science, at Charles University, in Prague, Czech Republic.
Abstract
We argue for expanding the role of theory in ecology to accelerate scientific progress, enhance the ability to address environmental challenges, foster the development of synthesis and unification, and improve the design of experiments and large-scale environmental-monitoring programs. To achieve these goals, it is essential to foster the development of what we call efficient theories, which have several key attributes. Efficient theories are grounded in first principles, are usually expressed in the language of mathematics, make few assumptions and generate a large number of predictions per free parameter, are approximate, and entail predictions that provide well-understood standards for comparison with empirical data. We contend that the development and successive refinement of efficient theories provide a solid foundation for advancing environmental science in the era of big data.
Key words: theory unification metabolic theory neutral theory of biodiversity maximum entropy theory of ecology big data
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